The Wizard of Odds goes through the runner-by-runner preview of the Group 1 Spring Champion at Randwick.
Can the $1.8 million colt Profondo live up to the price tag?
#1 Head Of state
Head Of State defeated Profondo to win the Gloaming Stakes as a $5.5 elect.
Could potentially be posted three-wide with no cover which might just give the perfect trail into the race for his main rival Profondo.
James McDonald stays aboard and he will give this horse every conceivable to win this.
Odds: $4 the win
Finishing position: Second
This race looks as though it is his grand-final.
The impeccably bred colt by Deep Impact made the rise to 1800 metres at only his second career start a fortnight ago and battled bravely to set himself up for this race.
He lugged in when the pressure came on late in the race and it cost him victory, but that will not stop him here.
Expecting an improvement of anywhere between two to four lengths and that will be more than enough to be winning this race.
Drawn out wide will be fine as he is a big striding colt who needs room and momentum.
Will be using this as a tick-over run to the Cox Plate.
Odds: $3.1 the win
Finishing position: First
Was a well-beaten force in the Gloaming Stakes behind Head of State and Profondo.
The barrier forced his hand and he was forced to settle further back than initially expected.
Inside barrier should give him a better chance than last start, but he does not have the talent of the top two.
Odds: $10 the win and $3.2 the place
Finishing position: Sixth
Was gapped by Head of State and Profondo in the Gloaming Stakes, but did mange to run third.
Beat the rest of the field home quite well, and that form is good enough to finish in the top four.
Not sure if jockey Hugh Bowman is riding in stellar form and the barrier might prove a little tricky, which hurts his winning chance.
Odds: $11 the win and $3.4 the place.
Finishing position: Fourth
#5 French Emperor
It all went pear-shaped for him last start.
The blinkers forced him to over-race and he was done before they even cornered into the straight.
Blinkers come off to settle him down and that should improve his chances.
Barrier 11 the big knock as jockey Tim Clark will probably settle him in the rear half.
Odds: $26 the win and $6 the place.
Finishing position: Fifth
#6 Raging Bull
The less fancied David Payne runner and with good reason.
Won a 2100 metre Wyong maiden that does not rate very highly.
Will not get getting within four lengths of Profondo or Head of State.
Odds: $51 the win and $11 the place.
Finishing position: Eighth
The wide barrier is going to suit him.
Nearly fell over at Flemington in the Derby trial last start when being chopped out for a run by a rank outsider.
Showed great fight to keep running.
He will be running on late with his sights set on the Derby.
Odds: $16 the win and $4.6 the place
Finishing position: Seventh
M, W & J Hawkes
A five-length margin to him and the top two picks in this race last start in the Gloaming.
Expect nothing to change here.
Odds: $61 the win and $13 the place.
Finishing position: Twelfth
Making up the numbers.
Should be longer odds.
Odds: $101 the win and $21 the place.
Finishing position: Last
#10 Satirical Glory
Will be a similar tale to the Gloaming Stakes effort.
Started a $101 chance in that race and was thrashed.
Softer barrier might see him come on a little, but he can’t be considered a winning hope on the last start performance.
Odds: $41 the win and $9 the place.
Finishing position: Eleventh
#11 Never Been Kissed
Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Took out the Group 1 Flight Stakes at huge odds last start.
Showed great fight and tenacity to stave off her challengers.
She will race on the speed and goes up in distance which is a big tick for the Waterhouse & Bott runners.
Will be super tough to get past, but the unknown quantity is how she will handle the back up after seven days.
Has to be in the top three on what she has produced to date.
Odds: $4.8 the win
Finishing position: Third
Comes out of the Flight Stakes like Never Been Kissed, but was no where near the level of the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott filly.
She will, however, get a very easy run in transit but lacks the sustained sprint to outclass this field.
Odds: $21 the win and $5.5 the place.
Finishing position: Tenth
One of the more intriguing in the runners in the race.
The three-year-old filly was a smart winner of the Toowoomba Guineas over 1600 metres.
She hit the line really nicely, but it is hard to get a gauge on how that form stacks up against the Sydney horses.
Top ten chance on what she showed at Toowoomba.
Odds: $21 the win and $5 the place
Finishing position: Ninth