The Wizard of Odds gives us the best bets from Cranbourne ahead of Thursday thoroughbred action.
A filly looks ready to find victory for the first time in the first, while it’s the second and third races which provide further value on the card.
Cranbourne Race 1
Clint McDonald unveiled his new three-year-old filly with a debut run in BM-64 grade over 1000 metres and it unfortunately went astray.
She pinged to lead from an inside barrier, but put the white flag up at the 200-metre mark as she was gobbled up and beaten by nearly five lengths.
The stewards report confirmed she pulled up with a slow recovery rate and she raced very greenly when cornering into the home straight.
McDonald has elected to get the tongue tie on her in order to get her breathing properly through the run, which may have been the concern a fortnight ago.
Back to maiden grade is much easier and with the early speed she showed to lead the field up last start the wide barrier here will be no concern.
Suggested Bet: Beautaki win $3.50
Suggested Exotic: Quinella – 10 & 13
Cranbourne Race 2
Could be a potential group horse based on what he has showed at the jump outs.
The three-year-old gelding has been nominated, accepted and then scratched from a handful of races prior to this due to wide barriers.
He now draws a perfect barrier and at a track that will favour his likely on-pace running style.
Love the way he wanted to the take gap in between during a slick 46.20-timed jump out at Flemington over 800 metres.
He handled the corner like a professional as he balanced in the last little bit of jump out and he had been let go he probably would have won.
Expect him to settle one pair back in behind the leaders, hook out three wide and let down with his the sprint that has so far been hidden at the jump outs.
Suggested Bet: Saskatoon win at $3.1
Cranbourne Race 3
This race could not set up any more perfectly for Caliper to find the first win of her career.
The three-year-old from the Ken & Kasey Keys stable has drawn wide barriers at her first two runs back from a spell this preparation, but has put in solid efforts regardless.
She only finished two lengths off promising city-winning filly Zouzarella and then got too far back at Sandown over 1400 metres last start.
That Sandown race has produced a stake winner in Bon’s A Pealer and is likely to produce a maiden in the form of Caliper.
She gets an in-form Craig Williams who comes off four winners at Flemington yesterday and he will have this filly positioned in the first four.
Today is the day for this horse.
Suggested Bet: Caliper win at $3.1
Suggested Exotic: Trifecta – 2/ 3, 4, 10, 11/ 3, 4, 10, 11
Cranbourne Race 6
#7 Newzeel Deal
It was a case of how far for Newzeel Deal when he loomed up to win in BM-64 grade over 2400 metres at Geelong last start.
He strode up to the leaders and looked set to go past them, but just felt the toll of a tough chasing run over that distance range for the first time in his career and his fitness just gave way late.
The drop back in distance may actually work in favour, especially with what looks likely to be a much softer tempo than what he faced at Geelong.
He boasts natural early speed which is a competitive advantage in these middle-distance races.
Expecting Rhys McLeod to let this gelding stride to the front and roll along out in front on a track that is advantageous to lead on.
Suggested Bet: Newzeel each-way at $6.5 the win and $2.2 the place.
Suggested Exotic: Trifecta – 3, 7/ 3, 5, 7/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 7