Football’s biggest prize is set to be decided this Saturday.
Can the Cats stamp their authority after a brilliant season or are the Swans set to peak at the right time?
Geelong vs. Sydney
september 24th 2:30pm
With the two most consistently performed teams of the 21st century, this year’s Grand Final shapes as history-defining.
Geelong has missed just one finals campaign in the past 16 seasons, netting three premierships, while Sydney has only dipped briefly, appearing in five Grand Finals, winning two of them.
As with any Grand Final, there are a multitude of storylines, not least of which is that it is the final game of Lance Franklin’s behemoth nine-year contract. He has committed to another year for the Swans, but a premiership would complete one of football’s most amazing stories.
While he is 35 years old, Franklin still poses as a threat for the Swans but will have his work cut out against athletic backman Sam De Konig.
If you’re looking for some value in the goal-scoring markets, it may come from some of Sydney’s lesser lights, particularly with Sam Reid under an injury cloud.
Will Hayward has quietly risen in stature this season and has found a knack for kicking important goals at crucial times, while Tom Papley was in career-best form in last week’s win over Collingwood.
For the Cats, they have been an even team in a season where they have comfortably sat atop the ladder most of the way.
Tyson Stengle has been a revelation in front of goals and offers a little more value than the twin towers of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins. Still, all eyes will be on Patrick Dangerfield as he looks to complete his legacy with a big finals performance. Dangerfield has struggled with his body at times this season. Still, if last week’s performance against Brisbane is anything to go by, he is as big a threat as anyone to bring a best-on-ground performance to the table this week, sitting as the favourite to take out the Norm Smith medal.
Cameron and Hawkins are two of the best big men in the game, but history shows that tall forwards don’t have a great recent record in Norm Smith polling, and the money is more safely invested elsewhere.
But if you’re looking for value in that market, Nick Blakey’s run and carry have been a weapon out of the back half for the Swans, and he could have a significant impact in this game. Fellow defender Jake Lloyd is also worth looking at, as his accumulating style could make him stand out on the day.
Much has been made of Tom Atkins’ start to the finals and his rise from park footballer to potential premiership star. Another consistent, if not so flashy game from him could have him in contention and would bring a smile to the punters looking his way.
It is also worth keeping an eye on the total points market. The Cats kicked 18 goals in last week’s win, but against a tight Sydney defence, and with the possibility of showers for Saturday, this is unlikely to be a shootout, and the unders look the safe bet.
With 15 wins on the trot, the Cats have all the momentum, and as last week showed, they are taking absolutely no prisoners. It’s Geelong to hold the silverware on Saturday with Dangerfield, skipper Joel Selwood and coach Chris Scott emphasising once and for all, they are peerless in the modern era.
Suggested Bet: Geelong-1-39 at 2.20
Value Bet: Nick Blakey to win Norm Smith at $51
Suggested Same Game Multi:
Leg 1: Geelong 1-39
Leg 2: P. Dangerfield 20+ Disposals
Leg 3: C. Mills 20+ Disposals
Leg 4: Total score under 164.5
Total Odds: $5.50
