It is the night of nights in the AFL calendar and BetDeluxe has scoured the markets for the best bets in this year’s AFL Brownlow Medal.
TOP 3 FINISH
It doesn’t look very open here, with the three favourites coming in at under $1.15. For that reason, this market might be worth looking at laterally. Jeremy Cameron can’t win the medal due to suspension, but there is no asterisk on finishing top three.
Geelong finished as minor premiers with the most wins, and relatively low output from their usual midfield stars might see some votes go Cameron’s way. He represents good value on the seventh line of betting.
Suggested Bet: Jeremy Cameron to finish top 3 at $17
Lachie Neale is the anchor leg for this one, and while Clayton Oliver has been touted as his most likely contender and shortest price quinella partner, he may have some competition from out west. Andrew Brayshaw was outstanding for Fremantle all year, and unlike Oliver’s star-studded company at Melbourne, he won’t be overshadowed by too many of his teammates on the night.
Brayshaw in place of Oliver to quinella with Neale is a much juicier option on the market and one that we can’t look past.
Suggested Bet: Lachie Neale/Andrew Brayshaw Quinella at $8.50
It says a lot about Lachie Neale that his few quiet games gathered more attention than the vast majority in which he starred. As a previous winner, he has shown he can gain the umpire’s attention and even if those few off games mean some rounds he doesn’t poll, there were more than enough games he was clearly in the top three. Markets tend to get the favourites right in the Brownlow in recent years and Neale’s short price should be an appeal rather than a deterrent.
No one is ever a one-man band in a 22-man team but apart from a few eye-catching games from Hugh McCluggage there is little chance of teammates robbing Neale for votes in what was a strong season for Brisbane.
Suggested Bet: Lachie Neale winner at $3
LEADER AFTER ROUND 5
This was a resurgent year for Patrick Cripps even though he came close to being ineligible through suspension towards the end of the season. He has polled well early in seasons past, having racked up 13 votes in the first five rounds in 2019 and does have a way of catching the umpires’ eye.
Factoring in Carlton’s strong start to the season, there is no reason why Cripps can’t once again be one of the early bolters.
Suggested Bet: Patrick Cripps leader after round 5 at $4.50
LEADER AFTER ROUND 10
Ten straight wins to kick off the season will see Melbourne featuring prominently and the most-watched of the night will be Clayton Oliver who polled 31 votes to finish third last year. Watch him to lift as the Demons’ early season dominance plays out and his first half of the season gives him a platform to go on and take the medal at the end of the night.
Suggested Bet: Clayton Oliver leader after round 10 at $3.75
MOST 3 VOTE GAMES
Touk Miller has been outstanding in 2022 and in what was a relatively good year for Gold Coast, he was the clear star throughout. The footy world got very excited after the Suns’ 10 wins with Miller leading the way in most of them and it’s hard to find many of his good games where he was surpassed by anyone else on the field.
Suggested Bet: Touk Miller most 3 vote games at $26
PLAYER TO POLL IN MOST GAMES
The (very minor) knock on Clayton Oliver has been that Melbourne has plenty of players to share the votes. That concern is eased for this market, where Oliver may be bumped down the order occasionally by Christian Petracca, Max Gawn, Steven May and Jack Viney but even if he is, he still presents a strong enough case to poll a 1 or 2.
It’s short odds, but with good reason as Oliver’s consistency has him established as one of the game’s premier midfielders who has been every good as he was last year when he polled in 13 games.
Suggested Bet: Clayton Oliver to poll in most games at $1.57