A crisp warm day is upon us for racing at Ballarat with the track to be rated in the good range.
With the rail in the true position, we expect every horse to have their chance of winning with even luck and tempo being a key to the results on the day.
We start off with bets in race one and two.
ballarat race 1
#8 flame of venice
Flame Of Venice is screaming and shouting out aloud to get up to 2000 metres and she finally gets that here at her third start.
The three-year-old filly from the Trent Bussutin and Natalie Young yard has been chipping away in maiden races over 1400 metres and 1600 metres in her first campaign, but looks set to peak into this race.
She hit the line nicely at Pakenham over the mile last start and was making good headway on the leaders after the post in a sign she is going to handle the extra 400 metres without too many issues.
This stable has a knack of sending their horses to the front when they rise in distance and it could very well be the case here from a soft barrier in a race devoid of early pace.
Hoping Michael Dee is wise enough to push forward and get a map advantage on his main danger Irish Exchange.
Suggested Bet: Flame Of Venice each-way at $5 the win and $2.10 the place.
Suggested Exotic: Trifecta – 8/ 1, 2/ 1, 2
ballarat race 2
#3 Demon Darb
The market is going to completely change once Hafey comes out of race having already made his debut on Sunday.
It opens up the race to Demon Darb who, to the eye, has not jumped out impressively well, but he looks to have something to offer on race day.
He has jumped out with blinkers and without in what have looked to be real educational efforts.
His jump out without the blinkers saw him lead all the way and he was not asked to do too much in the back end.
The blinkers have been applied for race day and that signals big intent from the stable.
From barrier one, it is tough to envisage Patrick Moloney not taking this horse to the lead or taking the box seat.
His price will half when Hafey is scratched, so it might just pay to wait a little longer as we believe he will drift closer to the jump.
The odds to have a bet on him will be displayed in the ‘suggested bet’ section, rather than what his actual price is at the time of publishing.
Suggested Bet: Demon Darb each-way at $5 the win and $2 the place.
Suggested Exotic: Boxed Trifecta – 3, 7, 8
ballarat race 6
Mishika is ready to win after having her first ever career run over 1500 metres at Yarra Glen last start.
The Luke Oliver-trained four-year-old mare now looks conditioned to run strongly over this distance range and confidence is sky-high with the blinkers going on for the first time.
Jamie Mott has no excuses not to land her in the perfect spot with cover for this race and she should be able to let down with a sprint late in the race to win.
She is fit and enjoys racing on good-rated tracks, which is what we are going to get at Ballarat and her on-pace racing style over this distance will only benefit her winning hopes.
Suggested Bet: Mishika win at $4.4
Suggested Exotic: Quinella 5 & 6
ballarat race 8
Brings in city credentials to this BM-64 race after plugging away for a runner-up finish behind Kiptanui at Sandown over 2100 metres.
A similar run to what he did last start could see him jump an odds-on favourite in this event.
Surely Jamie Mott clicks up the gears early and sends this fit Mike Moroney gelding to the lead in order to offset the wide barrier and being posted deep without cover.
This race looks much easier on paper than what he faced at Sandown and he only goes up half-a-kilo for this drop down to provincial grade.
Hard to see him being run down with his strong fitness base if he can ascertain an early lead without too much of a challenge.
Suggested Bet: Wisaka win at $2.60