The $5,000,000 Group 1 Weight-for-Age Cox Plate is set to be run and won.
Zaaki comes up the $2.6 favourite despite his last start defeat at Caufield.
The Punter’s Prince goes through the runner-by-runner guide to find us the winner!
#1 Zaaki
Annabel Neasham
Looked a near lock to start a very short-priced favourite but was soundly beaten in the Caulfield Stakes last start.
He really struggled in the home straight on good going at Caulfield a fortnight ago and looked to jar up as the the race went on.
His starting price profile must be respected after starting $1.8 and $1.4 at his last two starts.
He has the turn-of-foot and sustained speed to the win this, however it is a big unknown whether or not he will handle the tight-turning surroundings of Moonee Valley.
Has to be left in the top three.
Odds: $2.6 the win and $1.30 the place
Finishing position: Third
#2 Dalasan
Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas
Continues to run well at Group 1 level without winning.
The Moonee Valley track probably will likely not favour the get-back run on style of racing he has adopted.
Any rain will help his chances though with four of his seven career victories coming on soft going.
On his current form, it is tough to see him holding out the big guns of this field.
Odds: $31 the win and $6 the place
Finishing position: Ninth
#3 Gold Trip
Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace
The clear pick of the international raiders who brings Group 1 French form into this race.
The five-year-old horse has been acquired by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace who had great success achieving a win in this race last year with the late Sir Dragonet.
This horse was only beaten two-and-a-half lengths in the Arc last year and most recently finished third in the Group 1 Saint Cloud over 2400 metres, which is good enough to be very competitive in this race.
The knock on him, despite the solid form credentials, is his inability to actually win races. He has only had one win from 10-career starts.
Must be a top-two chance though based on his overseas form.
Odds: $9 the win and $2.60 the place
Finishing position: Second
#4 Callsign Mav
John Bary
Makes his way over from across the Tasman to have a throw at the stumps.
Market is a true reflection of his ability against this field.
Will likely start a longer price and is a minimal chance to win this race despite the winning form in Group 1 races over in NZ.
Odds: $6.5 the win and $2.4 the place
Finishing position: Last
#5 Mo'Unga
Annabel Neasham
Seems to the forgotten horse of the spring.
Had to carry top weight in the Epsom Handicap when drawing wide and settling just worse than midfield.
The run should him thriving for the 2040-metre distance of the Cox Plate and, depending on his barrier draw, if he can find a spot closer than he did last start, he might be a chance to threaten the top five in the market.
Has already beaten Verry Elleegant this preparation and ran Incentivise to within half-a-length.
That form is good enough to go well here and he can handle the wet conditions should the forecast rain eventuate.
Odds: $26 the win and $6 the place.
Finishing position: Sixth
#6 Verry Elleegant
Chris Waller
This Chris Waller-trained mare is the winner of nine Group 1’s so must be taken seriously.
She did, however, put in a stinker last start when, much like Zaaki, she started favourite in the lead-up run and failed dismally.
The excuse for Verry Elleegant might just have been a how fiercely the Turnbull Stakes was run this year with Incentivise setting a break-neck tempo out in front which has shown to be good enough to trot in with the Caulfield Cup.
Any rain about will benefit her greatly given she glides herself through the wet weather. .
Odds: $13 the win and $3.4 the place.
Finishing position: Fourth
#7 Probabeel
Jamie Richards
A bombproof mare who goes from strength-to-strength this preparation.
She stamped her authority as a star Weight-for-Age galloper with victory in the Caulfield Stakes a fortnight ago.
The only problem is the rain.
She is not as good as good on the wet going and with the rain forecast for Melbourne on Saturday, we have to put her down the pecking order.
Odds: $15 the win and $3.7 the place
Finishing position: Seventh
#8 State of rest
Joseph O'brien
Joseph O’Brien saddles up this last-start winner of the Group 1 Derby Invitational (1911m).
The knock on him is how long of a price he started in that race, which suggests it might not have been the strongest event coming out of Ireland.
He was a $22 elect when being a handed a perfect ride from barrier nine of 11.
A repeat of that performance might see him run top five. .
Odds: $20 the win and $5.5 the place
Finishing position: Fifth
#9 Anamoe
James Cummings
Armed with a devastating sustained sprint capable of crushing this field.
The three-year-old colt has gone to another level this preparation after taking the Caulfield Guineas with a brilliant show of acceleration and an ability to handle a high-pressure race scenario.
He is only going to carry 49.5kgs and looks well versed in wet or dry conditions.
He is already worth millions in the breeding barn and could be worth even more should he triumph in this race as expected to with a massive push for him in the market prior to being officially accepted.
Odds: $4.6 the win and $1.65 the place.
Finishing position: First
#10 Captivant
Peter & Paul Snowden
Doubt he is as effective on wet ground as he is on top of the ground.
Was brave in defeat behind Anamoe last start, but the price discrepancy between them in the Caulfield Guineas has to be taken into consideration.
Lightweight will help, however the inside draw will probably see him strung up for a run and will likely be in the worst going come this stage of the Moonee Valley carnival.
Odds: $19 the win and $4.60 the place
Finishing position: Eighth
