Flemington and Rosehill.
The best bets from our resident Wizard of Odds are in and he’s found big value in race four at Flemington., while a front-runner at Rosehill in the third on the card is ready to fire.
Flemington Race 4
#6 In her stride
Huge jockey change for this horse with Damien Oliver being booked for the ride.
Loved the way this two-year-old filly hit the line on debut over 1000 metres at Moe.
She was narrowly defeated by Gotta Pulse but meets that horse one kilo better off at the weights.
A dry track should see her run well as should the hands of Oliver who will need to be positive early given the tardy barrier manners this filly showed on debut.
The way she flattened out up the Moe straight suggests a Flemington sprint up the straight will be perfect.
Suggested Bet: In Her Stride each-way at $16 the win and $4.6 the place.
Flemington Race 5
#11 Viral
The market knew Viral was going to put in absolute stinker last start and that he did.
He was a big drifter after being $3.8 out to $7 and was beaten by nearly five lengths on a wet track at Flemington.
Danny O’Brien has opted to make the move in the saddle with Damian Lane being booked to pilot this five-year-old gelding.
Lane has ridden this horse four times in the last year for a win and three minor placings.
Predicting he will take up a forward role in an attempt to get onto the back of a horse like All Too Huiying who should cart him up with cover.
Suggested Bet: Viral each-way at $13 the win and $3.7 the place.
Suggested Exotic: Trifecta – 3, 11/ 3, 8, 11/ 3, 6, 8, 11
Flemington Race 8
#5 Curran
Curran has become a deadset marvel for Lyn Tolson and Leanne Proctor.
The three-yaer-old gelding ran sensationally well behind the very smart Ayrton last start at Caulfield as the pair gapped the rest of the field.
He has since had a four-week freshen since that runner-up placing over 1200 metres and now drops back in distance to 1100 metres.
That should not prove any issues given this sprinter’s ability to race up on the pace.
He should be able to settle just in behind the lead speed and prove tough to hold out.
Suggested Bet: Curran each-way at $7.5 the win and $2.6 the place.
Suggested Exotic: F4 – 5, 14/ 5, 9, 14/ 2, 3, 5, 9, 14
Rosehill Race 3
#6 too much caviar
Too Much Caviar looks a typical Gai Waterhouse middle distance style of horse; tough, honest and full of heart.
After winning his maiden at Newcastle over 1400 metres by a shade over four lengths, the All Too Hard gelding put up a brave effort over 1550 metres at Randwick-Kensington.
That run had all the makings of a horse who will appreciate the rise in distance to 1800 metres.
It is the first time his career where he can really use his sharpness and fresh legs as a competitive edge against horses who looks quite dour.
Expect gun front-running hoop Tim Clark to ping straight to the front and lead this field a merry dance down the Rosehill straight.
Suggested Bet: Too Much Caviar win at $3.5
rosehill Race 7
#11 stockman
Stockman looks to have a big fitness edge over this field having run his last race over 2400 metres.
He comes into this Winter Cup event on the quick back-up after carrying 60.5 kilos in BM-78 level at Randwick and now tumbles down to 54 kilos albeit in tougher grade.
Trainer Joseph Pride looks to have played this well by racing him on the quick back-up.
He has already faced most of this field given he ran in the lead-up event a fortnight ago and did a good job in that race to finish as close has he did given how far back he settled in the run.
Praying Brenton Avdulla is positive from the wide barrier because if he gets too far back he will have to make up too much ground.
Happy to take the risk that they will take up a forward position in the run given this looks a likely target race.
Suggested Bet: Stockman win at $4.8
