The Wizards of Odds previews the first of the three-day carnival at ‘The Bool.
He fancies a new jumper on the block as well as some great value in the sprint races on the program.
Warrnambool Race 3
#5 Gravistas
Gravistas looks primed to make a winning start to his jumping career after a nice jumps trial and some decent efforts at the flats.
His last start at Cranbourne last Friday night was the perfect ‘tick over’ run for this maiden hurdle over 3200 metres.
Trialled nicely over the hurdles for the first time back on April 9 and then followed that up with a six-length hurdle trial win over 2800 metres at this very track last week.
While Mawaany Machine clearly has the better flat form and, based on that, is the deserved favourite, he has come up a very short price.
Suggested Bet: Gravistas win at $4.2
Warrnambool Race 4
#8 Bubbly Lass
Expecting Bubbly Lass to break through for her maiden victory today after a nice return at Pakenham when resuming from a spell.
She had two career runs at Geelong and Swan Hill prior to being spelled and was brave in defeat on April 15 behind a smart filly for the Michael Kent team.
Love that John Allen has decided to stick with this three-year-old filly.
She will settle midfield with some cover and hopefully Allen can find the gaps in the straight to utilise her turn of foot to full effect.
Interesting that Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace have applied the norton bit on this horse in an attempt to calm her down and conserve her energy for late in the race.
Suggested Bet: Bubbly Lass win at $2.60
Suggested Exotic: Quinella 8 & 12
Warrnambool Race 5
#7 New York Baby
The two jumpouts New York Baby has partaken in will have her primed for a big run on debut.
Trainers Leon and Troy Corstens would have been pleased what they saw during her most recent spin around the Flemington jump out course.
After jumping cleanly at the beginning of an 800-metre jump out, she settled nicely in behind the leaders and when they gap opened she stuck her nose through under a vice-like grip.
Without the reigns being released, she punched through and strode away to win the jump out comfortably.
Damien Oliver is booked for this first-up assignment and he will likely save her for one big run late in the race from the wide barrier.
Suggested Bet: New York Baby win at $4.2
Warrnambool Race 7
#12 Cernan
Cernan has had very little luck in his past two runs but it looks it all might come together in this race.
Two starts ago he was desperate for a run at the top of straight but was never able to see daylight until the last 200 metres and was beaten by a bee’s diaphragm.
Last start he settle last in a six-horse field in a ‘crawla-thon’ where the leaders absolutely walked up front and he was afforded little chance to round up the on-pacers.
Today, he seems to get a much more genuine run race which will allow to utilize his staying stamina to much greater effect.
Gun apprentice Will Price takes the ride to gives us some added confidence.
Suggested bet: Cernan each-way at $6.5 the win and $2.3 the place.
Suggested Exotic: Trifecta – 5, 12/ 3, 5, 12, 14/ 3, 5, 12, 14
Warrnambool Race 8
#12 Duke of Plumpton
Returned to the races after a little two-and-a-half month freshen up and he put the writing on the wall with a slashing effort at Caulfield.
After settling nearly last in a field of 12, he flashed home to run fourth beaten by under half a length and he now gives us the impression that he is ready to win again.
The rise in distance from the mile to 1700 metres will be perfect for him.
With a solid lead speed expected here, Michael Dee will be storming home on him down the outside as the leaders hopefully pack up shop and fail to withstand his big finishing burst.
Suggested Bet: Duke of Plumpton win at $3.9
Suggested Exotic: Quinella 9 & 12
