The BetDeluxe AFL Game of the Round comes on Sunday when the Melbourne Demons take on the Geelong Cats at the MCG.
Will the Demons go 4-0? Will the Cats make it three in a row?
We’ve gone through this one with a fine-tooth comb and it makes for one of the more anticipated games not only in this round but of the season
HEad to HEAD
April 11th 3:20pm
Sunday afternoon football from the MCG between Melbourne and Geelong in what shapes as the BetDeluxe Game of the Round.
After a shock round one defeat against last year’s wooden spooner Adelaide, Geelong has bounced back strongly to re-align its season with narrow victories against Brisbane and Hawthorn.
Melbourne, meanwhile, are bathing in the form of a 3-0 start to the year for the first time since 2005 after a big 34-point win over the injury depleted GWS Giants at Manuka Oval last Sunday.
The recent head to head between both sides does favour Geelong but it is the MCG where the Demons have shown their best form against the Cats.
Last year may have been a thrilling round two 7.5.47 to 6.8.44 win to the Cats but they will now be without Patrick Dangerfield who both had a big say in the outcome.
Sam Menegola is likely to return in what will be a welcome boost to the Cats midfield, while Demons utility Jake Melksham may elevate himself from the medical sub into the 22.
The Demons look a much improved outfit to last season and set themselves up nicely to knock off a Geelong side who, albeit in winning form, looks to labouring to victory rather than putting teams away as it did in 2020.
Prediction: Melbourne by 8 points
Melbourne head to head at $2.02
Suggested Same Game Multi:
Leg 1: Christian Petracca Score Anytime
Leg 2: Mitch Duncan 25+ Disposals
Leg 3: Melbourne Win
Leg 4: Total Points Under 175.5
Combined Odds: $5.75
FIRST GOAL SCORER
Mitch Duncan/Christian Petracca
Melbourne have kicked the first goal of its opening three games to start the 2021 season, while Geelong has managed to nail the first major of the game twice.
It’s been the small to medium size forwards who have done the damage for the Demons early in the games with Alex Neal-Bullen, Kysaiah Pickett and Jack Viney managing to hit scoreboard early.
For Geelong, Francis Evans managed the first goal in his debut against the Lions and it was Tom Hawkins who slotted the first goal against the Hawks last week.
We have a plethora of angles to go to for a first goal in this game with no real clear standout.
Scrolling back to the 2020 clash it was Darcy Fort who managed to nail the first six-pointer but he won’t be playing on Sunday.
Let’s look towards a midfielder to kick the first goal in this one.
Mitch Duncan loves getting forward and hitting the scoreboard for the Cats and Christian Petracca managed an early goal against the Giants last week.
Mitch Duncan first goal scorer at $18
Christian Petracca first goal scorer at $15
total points scored
The statistic which leans towards taking the unders here is Geelong’s record at the MCG from a total points scored perspective.
In the last eight fixtures the Cats have played at the MCG, the total point scored for the entire match has gone under the set amount prior to the first bounce on seven occasions.
This season the Cats’ fixtures have managed to go over 165.5 point scored quota set for this game on one occasion. The last two games for the Cats have gone under but it is a small sample size.
The Demons do look like they are playing an offensive brand of football that allows them to score freely after rattling away 31 shots against the Saints and 27 shots against the Giants last week.
They cracked the ton for the first time last week with a 15.12.107 scoreline but it does come up against a backline who boasts the likes of Tom Stewart, Mark Henry, Jed Bews and Jake Kolodjashni.
Melbourne will look dangerous, but highly doubt it will be getting away as many scoring shots against a sturdy Cats backline.
Suggested Bet: Total points scored under 165.5 points at $1.88