The running of the Group 2 Villiers Stakes at Randwick means it’s time for the Punter’s Prince to take us through the runner-by-runner guide.
The Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou stable looks to have a stranglehold on the race.
#1 bandersnatch
M, W & J Hawkes
Has fared okay at his first two runs this campaign.
The barrier is a positive as is potentially getting back onto a drying Randwick surface.
Could fill a place, but prefer to leave him out of the winner’s column.
Odds: $9 the win and $3 the place.
Finishing position: Fifth
#2 gem song
kris lees
An outsider of the field who should probably be a bit of a longer price.
His two first-up runs have not really talked punters into backing him with confidence.
Very wide barriers will hurt his chances as well.
Odds: $31 the win and $7.5 the place.
Finishing position: Twelfth
#3 I am Superman
peter & paul snowden
Had every conceivable chance to win a weaker race at Caulfield last start, but was rundown in the last 50 metres.
He will need a miracle from Tommy Berry to slot into a race-winning position from barrier 17.
Will be too far back in the run.
Odds: $14 the win and $4.2 the place.
Finishing position: Eleventh
#4 So si bon
ben & j d hayes
So Si Bon is an old warrior who keeps running competitively even as an eight-year-old.
Doubt this race is going to suit him given where he draws.
He is about his right price at the moment, anything longer he might be worth a very small each-way bet.
Odds: $21 the win and $6.5 the place.
Finishing position: Sixth
#5 ranier
james cummings
Was well beaten behind I Am Superman at Caulfield last start.
A repeat of that run will not be good enough to win this.
Odds: $26 the win and $7 the place.
Finishing position: Thirteenth
#6 Ellsberg
gerald ryan & sterling alexiou
The warm favourite and deservedly so.
Won the Group 3 Festival Stakes with a leg in the air last start and is drawn to get a very similar run in transit to what he did in that race.
He was four weeks between runs that day and did a fantastic job in the heavy conditions.
He is probably better suited getting back onto a drier track.
Big positive here is Tim Clark taking the ride as you know he will want to put the horse in an on-pace position to give it the best chance of winning.
Odds: $4.4 the win and $1.85 the place
Finishing position: First
#7 order again
chris waller
Probably one or two runs too short of hitting his peak this preparation just yet.
Keep an eye on him late in the race.
He could be a horse to follow as he gets up in distance towards 2000 metres and beyond.
Odds: $19 the win and $5.5 the place
Finishing position: Ninth
#8 stockman
joseph pride
Improved out of sight in the Festival Stakes to run second behind Ellsberg.
That is the form line which is fancied in this race, but the query on his credentials is where he gets to when the gets open up.
Given he is stayer and will get better over further, doubt Jay Ford will bustle him out of the barriers.
He will be conceding a start, but could flash home late to fill a place.
Odds: $10 the win and $3.3 the place.
Finishing position: Third
#9 attorney
matthew smith
Despised outsider and the market will remain that way.
Nothing to suggest he will turn his form around.
Odds: $101 the win and $26 the place.
Finishing position: Last
#10 reloaded
chris waller
His form looks like the emergency contact number.
Two duck eggs in a row and will need a serious form reversal to win this.
Barrier has destroyed his chances as well.
Odds: $61 the win and $16 the place.
Finishing position: Sixteenth
#11 fun fact
bjorn baker
Making up the numbers.
Needs further and needs to drop down in grade.
Odds: $91 the win and $21 the place.
Finishing position: Seventeenth
#13 yamazaki
matthew dunn
Another horse who makes up a long tail in this race.
She will get back and run on, but is unlikely to cause much of an impact on this race.
Odds: $91 the win and $21 the place.
Finishing position: Fifteenth
#14 criaderas
james cummings
He is a dangerous horse in these types of races.
If we scroll back to last preparation, we see he is armed with a finishing burst that can be competitive, but he will need a lot to his way from barrier 15.
He has only missed a place once at Randwick.
Can run top six.
Odds: $91 the win and $21 the place.
Finishing position: Seventh
#15 steely
gerald ryan & sterling alexiou
The stablemate and main challenger to Ellsberg.
His win when carrying 60kgs at Kembla Grange a fortnight ago was as brave as they come.
He had to do all the donkey work sitting outside the lead but kept surging to the line to win by just under a length.
Tumbles down in the weights now and expect the market to really side with him late in the betting.
Not sure he has the class to outdo Ellsberg, but he will run a super race based on last start.
Odds: $4.40 the win and $1.85 the place.
Finishing position: Second
#16 exoboom
peter & paul snowden
The stable has to be respected in these types of races.
His runs in town this preparation have been solid enough, albeit in much lower grade than this.
Likely to run midfield.
Odds: $17 the win and $5 the place.
Finishing position: Fourteenth
#17 brutality
joseph pride
Another horse in the field who rises in grade but drops significantly in weight.
The market has clearly taken a liking to that set up.
Big query is whether or not the weight drop will have any bearing on him running a better race than last start given he is going to concede a start from the wide draw.
Well under the odds at the moment.
Only worth a bet if he hits double figures.
Odds: $7.5 the win and $2.6 the place.
Finishing position: Fourth
#18 grove ferry
gai waterhouse & adrian bott
Keep an eye out on the weather.
If we get a good-rated track this horse can improve.
Will put him in the top ten for now, but that could elevate if the sun is shining on Saturday.
Odds: $31 the win and $7.5 the place.
Finishing position: Tenth
#19 Kirwan's Lane
John o'shea
John O’Shea’s stable is flying at the moment.
Having said that, if Goulburn Cup is good enough to win the Villiers Stakes, we might just put the white flag up for the year and have a rest.
Odds: $31 the win and $7.5 the place.
Finishing position: Eighteenth
#20 wheelhouse
chris waller
The only possible reason this horse is not $201 and beyond is due to the trainer.
Yet to perform with any conviction in the city.
Odds: $41 the win and $9 the place.
Finishing position: Tenth
#21 lease
anthony cummings
A three-year-old colt who has only won one career race to date.
BM-78 form is highly unlikely to have any impact on this race.
Has to carry the same weight he did in much weaker grade as he does in this Group 2.
Poor set up.
Odds: $61 the win and $16 the place.
Finishing position: Nineteenth
