Canterbury Park and Warrnambool are the key mid-week meetings this Wednesday. With the Galleywood Hurdle and Wangoom Handicap the feature events on Day 2 of the annual Warrnambool carnival, all roads lead to ‘the bool’. Find out below who our experts are expecting to take home the cash.
Canterbury Race 5
#8 Brave One
Brave One looks the best bet on a tricky and competitive program of mid-week racing. The Exceedance gelding resumes after producing a string of impressive barrier trials, and I suspect he will draw plenty of market after landing a perfect inside gate. The current track conditions will suit, and he traditionally performs well fresh. If he is fully wound up for a first-up tilt, he will be incredibly hard to toss in this company. Give him strength!
Debello will have plenty of supporters after producing a consistent and rewarding campaign to date. The Deep Field gelding has recorded two wins and a second this preparation, and I suspect he has the fitness edge on the majority of his rivals. The 2kg apprentice claim brings him into all winning conversations, and his camp are training winners for fun at present. The class rise is his biggest obstacle.
Llewellyn is over the odds. The Mendelssohn gelding is racing better than it suggests in the form guide, and I suspect he is ready to produce a peak performance on Wednesday. The consistent four-year-old strips fitter after his recent outing, and the 1250m looks ideal at this stage of his campaign. His recent winning record and awkward barrier are among the primary concerns.
Suggested Bet: Brave One @ $2.70
Canterbury RACE 6
#5 Naval Commission
Naval Commission resumes with an air of expectation. The Merchant Navy gelding is coming off a disappointing spring preparation, and his recent jump-outs provided more questions than answers. His form twelve months ago would win this event in a trot and canter, and the likely heavy conditions play into his favour. His record fresh must be respected, and the inside draw puts one hoof on the till. Clearly the one to beat if he can recapture his mojo!
Our Empress Zoe will start as the race favourite after producing a stunning last-start victory at the track and distance. The Fastnet Rock mare meets similar opposition, and she can pilot the field with a clean and positive break from a middle gate. She has been well supported since acceptances, and I suspect there is further improvement to come for her current campaign. Her record on rain-affected tracks is the most significant deterrent.
No Drama can play a role with even luck in transit. He was far from disgraced at his latest outing in a strong form race, and he looks extremely well placed at this level. He is poised to strike from a perfect inside draw, and if he can get off the dulex as they run for the doctor, I expect him to figure in the finish. Leave him out at your own peril.
Suggested Bet: Naval Commission @ $5.00
Warrnambool Race 6
#1 Stern Idol
Stern Idol is ready to win. Both performances this campaign have built the perfect foundation for his appearance at the Warrnambool carnival, and I suspect he is ready to explode on Wednesday. His record at the track and distance must be respected, and his victory in the 2024 edition of the Brierly is still fresh in the memory bank. The grandstand weight is the primary concern for the rising nine-year-old. Class personified.
Affluential has been a revelation since joining the jumping ranks. The Zed gelding has won four out of his five outings, and I suspect he still has further improvement to come over the hurdles. The flashy six-year-old looks dangerous on the quick back-up, and his recent victory on the flat at headquarters was arrogant. The money trail gravitates towards the big boy, and he finds his pet distance here. Would prefer to see him on top of the ground.
The Cunning Fox made it four from four over the jumps in impressive fashion at his latest outing. He is undefeated at the trip, and I suspect this event has been a long-range target from the astute camp. From barrier four he will drift back and find his hooves, and if he doesn’t get too far out of his ground during the middle stages of the contest, he can loom to win late. I am unsure the tight turning Warrnambool circuit will suit his racing pattern and style.
Suggested Bet: Stern Idol @ $3.00
Warrnambool Race 8
#8 Home Rule
Home Rule can run a race at cricket-score odds. The Rebel Raider gelding drops significantly in weight, and his record at the track and trip speaks volumes. The sting out of the ground is advantageous, and I suspect the rising eight-year-old is ready to peak third-up from a spell. The big boy will roll forward and pilot the field from a middle gate, and if the track favours the leaders, similar to the 2024 carnival, he can cause the biggest boilover since Polly left the kettle on. Over the odds!
The Instructor is flying at present. The Russian Revolution gelding has recorded two victories on the bounce, and I suspect he has a long and fruitful campaign in front of him. The one-time Blue Diamond favourite handles all track conditions, and his versatility is exceptional. If he finds the bunny uncontested during the race’s early stages, the fat lady may be in full voice before patrons have climbed the famous Warrnambool hill. His fate may be decided in the early stages of the event.
Hedged is knocking on the door. All runs this campaign have been good without winning, and the form around him has stood up time and again. I suspect he has the fitness edge on the majority of his rivals, and his best performance her could be fences and panels better than his opponents. The enigmatic four-year-old loves a wet track and is drawn to receive all the favours in the run. He tends to find one or two better at the pointy end of a contest.
Suggested Bet: Home Rule @ $21.00
