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AFL Tips & Previews, 22nd September

BetDeluxe takes an in-depth look at both games on AFL preliminary final weekend, with the Magpies attempting to slow down the Orange Tsunami.

Can the minor premiers stop the Orange Tsunami?

Will the Blues train derail up in Brisbane?

BetDeluxe dives into both preliminary finals and delivers its best bets for each.   

Magpies vs. Giants

22nd September 7:50PM

One of recent memory’s most mouthwatering preliminary final match-ups pits the minor premiers against the barnstorming Giants. While the Magpies are $1.54 favourites with BetDeluxe, there’s no doubt Collingwood fans are far more nervous than they were two weeks ago after the Giants’ recent finals form.

Let’s start with the Orange Tsunami and their incredible run towards a preliminary finals berth. After squeezing into the eight with victory in the last game of the season, the Giants have gone from strength to strength with wins against St Kilda (24) and Port Adelaide (23). They were irresistible against the Power, dominating the home side with +95 disposals, +16 clearances and the top three possession-getters on the ground – Whitfield, Coniglio and Green.

Most importantly, Adam Kingsley’s only health concern is ruckman Kieren Briggs (shoulder), who is expected to suit up on Friday night.

Collingwood did exactly what they needed to in their opening final, defeating Melbourne by seven points at the MCG. Brownlow Medal fancy Nick Daicos will return to the side after injuring his knee in Round 21. He’ll replace Taylor Adams (hamstring), while Brayden Maynard is free to line up on Toby Greene after being cleared of his bump on Angus Brayshaw.

The two sides met once throughout the home and away season, with Collingwood running out 65-point winners in Round 9.

However, this is a very different GWS team, and it would take a brave punter to write off the Orange Tsunami completely. It will be a thriller.    

TIP: J. Kelly 25+ disposals at $1.50

Lions vs. Blues

23rd September 5:15pm

It’s the Brisbane Lions’ best chance of returning to the big dance since 2004, according to the market, with Chris Fagan’s men currently $1.35 ahead of their preliminary final against Carlton.

The Lions’ dominance at home has been well-documented, with their 48-point qualifying final victory over Port Adelaide making it 12 in a row at the Gabba this season. They piled on 19 goals against the Power, including a game-high five from Joe Daniher.

The week off hasn’t helped key defender Jack Payne (ankle), whose battle to overcome his injury may result in him being replaced by Darcy Gardiner. Jack Gunston could be another inclusion after recovering from a knee issue.

Carlton, who will be coached by the man who led the Lions to their last flag, come into the match full of confidence following their thrilling two-point victory over Melbourne last week. Sam Walsh is currently in the form of his career, with his 34 touches coming one week after a game-high 28 against the Swans.

Jack Martin (suspension) and Harry McKay (concussion) will return for the Blues on Saturday night, while Sam Docherty (shoulder) and Blake Acres (collarbone) are expected to play.

The Lions have won their past four against the Blues, with Carlton’s last win coming in Round 12, 2019.

The Blues will need to kick 100+ points to trouble the Lions at the Gabba, so we’re happy to stick with the home side.

TIP: Lions 1-39 @ $2.10

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