Rosehill hosts the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes (1400m) as we get set for a mammoth 10-race card.
The way the track plays is going to be critical to finding winners on the card with Rosehill producing a brutal leader-bias surface a fortnight ago.
rosehill race 1
#18 shen gui
Had a month between runs at his most recent start and it showed when he loomed up and peaked on his run.
Chad Schofield has remained on the six-year-old gelding for this race and should be able to afford him a lovely passage into the race from barrier three.
Coming back to 1400 metres will not be a deterrent and it may actually suit this horse a little better.
Both his city runs to date in this campaign have been strong and he should run us a nice each-way race.
Suggested Bet: Shen Gui each-way at $9 the win and $3.3 the place.
Confidence Rating: 5/10
rosehill race 2
#3 mr mosaic
Mr Mosaic looks like the likely leader in this race and, based on what the Rosehill track did last time, he has the competitive advantage in this race.
He looks a pure 1100-metre specialists with both his wins this preparation coming over that distance at Rosehill.
Has a clear liking for the track and should be ahead of the favourite in the run.
Suggested Bet: Mr Mosaic win at $4
Confidence Rating: 6.5/10
rosehill race 3
#2 military expert
The market sent warning signals he was not ready to win first-up and he ran accordingly when finishing fifth.
He had to do plenty of work in the run to come across from a wide gate and probably just lacked the fitness base to finish off strongly.
Interesting that he is the only horse in this race that BOBS eligible, which makes this a clear target for the stable.
Predicting Tommy Berry will waste no time when the barriers open and should take him straight to the front.
Suggested Bet: Military Expert win at $2.70
Confidence Rating: 8.5/10
rosehill race 4
#6 belluci babe
Races on the seven-day back up after being put the sword last weekend behind Snapdancer.
She races three wide with the leaders but had no cover and not entitled to finish as close as she did to the winner.
Stable clearly thinks she has pulled well from that run and the small field with a lack of early speed should see her settle in the lead.
Has the fitness advantage over a few of these can easily go all the way.
Suggested Bet: Belluci Babe win at $4.4
Confidence Rating: 6.5/10
rosehill race 5
#9 zapateo
Siding with the different form from Melbourne here and going with Godolphin-owned filly Zapateo.
She is the sole filly in the field and gets a weight allowance of 2kgs off the boys.
Really like the way she moved in her two trials at Randwick and Gosford in a sign she is ready to fire first-up from a spell.
Barrier four is ideal for her as it will likely allow Kerrin McEvoy to settle into the one-out and one-back position.
She possesses a very nice turn of foot and, at the very worst, should be running in the top three.
Suggested Bet: Zapateo each-way at $6.5 the win and $2.15 the place.
Confidence Rating: 7/10
rosehill race 6
#14 ebhaar
Strangely, the market has disowned Ebhaar as a genune winning chance after her failure in the Widden Stakes.
Punters piled into her in what was her first ever run in Sydney after scoring a very nice win at Caulfield.
She failed miserably but her starting price was $1.9 and that has to be taken into consideration.
Her trial since was quite sharp and showed us that she has much more to give than her last start effort at this track.
Forgive, forget and back her at the each-way price.
Suggested Bet: Ebhaar each-way at $9 the win and $2.70 the place.
Confidence Rating: 8/10
rosehill race 7
#1 entente
Tough race to pick with much confidence, however, Entente stands out.
He has been given three very solid hitouts at the trials in preparation for this resuming run over 1900 metres.
Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott has a knack of getting their horses to fire when resuming and Entente looks no exception here.
Hoping Tim Clark gets him to the front and lets him roll along in typical Waterhouse fashion.
If he gets it his own out front, they will struggle to reel him in.
Suggested Bet: Entente each-way at $6 the win and $2.25 the place.
Confident Rating 5/10
rosehill race 8
#2 converge
He trialled like a bomb and ran bravely when resuming first-up behind Paulele.
He had to lug 60kgs and was doing his best work late in the race.
Getting down to 56.5kgs under set-weight conditions is perfect for him.
He is going up against Anamoe in this race, but we feel he might map a few lengths ahead of the favourite.
Converge’s stablemate in SIlent Impact draws outside of him and can give him a nice cart into the race should Tim Clark opt to go forward in order to eliminate conceding ground.
Expect a big spike on his last-start performance as he tries to hold out the elite sprint of Anamoe.
Suggested Bet: Converge each-way at $5.5 the win and $1.65 the place.
Confidence Rating 4.5/10
rosehill race 9
#6 new arrangement
This race was a bit of a dartboard job.
A very even field that had us landing on New Arrangement.
Could very well be a Randwick-only horse but his odds are too good to ignore.
He went like a bullet when winning first-up last preparation after rounding up his opposition and winning with a leg in the air.
The trial prior this race should gear him up enough to run strongly over 1400 metres.
Barrier four should ensure he does minimal work in the run and he can sprint sharply with fresh legs.
Suggested Bet: New Arrangement each-way at $9 the win and $3 the place.
Confidence Rating: 2/10
rosehill race 10
#11 steel diamond
Much like the penultimate race, this BM-78 over 1400 metres is a really difficult way to end the day.
We have settled on Steel Diamond who is now hitting peak fitness this campaign.
Finished just under a length away from Joviality last start when rising from 1100 metres to 1300 metres.
Think that run would have brought her on beautifully for this race she will get a cheap run-in-transit.
Just not sure if he is a genuine winner anymore.
Seems to always find one or two better.
Suggested Bet: Steel Diamond each-way at $7.5 the win and $2.5 the place.
Confidence Rating 2/10
