The Punter’s Prince has run his eyes over the runner-by-runner guide for the $2,000,000 Invitation at Randwick this weekend.
A three-year-old looks set to find another gear, while the favourite is finally ready to show her best.
#1 Madam ROgue
Chris waller
Her very best would go close to winning this race.
She is getting a little long in the tooth now and has hit her ceiling as a horse.
Prefer to risk her based on her current form.
Odds: $21 the win and $6 the place.
Finishing position: Last
#2 Nudge
Chris Waller
Resumed at Caulfield over 1200 metres when being ridden patiently off the speed and asked to finish down the outside.
She hit the line really nicely when in clear air and is in for a good preparation.
Probably looking for a little bit further than 1400 metres and the barrier might pose an issue.
Likely to concede a start, but will be running home strongly.
Odds: $11 the win and $3.50 the place.
Finishing position: Sixth
#3 sweet deal
John Thompson
A bonny mare who is a stable stalwart for John Thompson.
Was not too far away behind the smart sprinter Minhaaj when resuming from a spell over 1200 metres.
She was caught a touch wide that day and was still surging to the line late in the race.
Big question mark on the barrier, which hurts her chances.
If she goes forward, she will probably be posted three and four wide with no cover and if she goes back it’s going to be hard to make up too much ground from near last.
Odds: $10 the win and $3.3 the place.
Finishing position: Seventh
#4 Forbidden Love
Richard & Michael Freedman
Has drawn poor barriers at her last two starts and it has not helped her chances.
Barrier three should see her settle closer in the run, but she is going to need some luck.
Not sure she is going as well as she has been in previous campaign.
Odds: $12 the win and $3.8 the place.
Finishing position: Forbidden Love
#5 Media award
Chris Calthorpe
A progressive stayer who was a Group 1 winner of the Australasian Oaks at $61.
She has really nice talent, however, she will be conceding a start here and will be warming in the last 200 metres.
Betting around her with the idea that will be better suited to 2000 metres and beyond.
Odds: $21 the win and $6 the place.
Finishing position: Tenth
#6 Entriviere
jamie richards
The New Zealand mare who has been fantastic in both her Australian starts.
She has been the favourite in her two lead-up runs when winning first-up and then being defeated as a $2.9 elect last start over 1400 metres in a race that is going to have ready to fire.
Had to do a little too much from the wide barrier when making the step up to 1400 metres for the first time this campaign, which left her vulnerable.
Now, with that run under her belt, she will be able to sustain that big striding sprint of hers for a little while longer to ensure she catches the leaders out in front.
Trainer Jamie Richards is a star at getting his horses to peak into grand-final and this mare is no exception to the rule.
Odds: $2.80 the win and $1.45 the place
Finishing position: First
#7 vangelic
gai waterhouse & adrian bott
Was horribly hampered by the horse in front of her who broke-down in the run and it ended her chances in the Silver Eagle
She looks the sole leader of the race who will be making all her luck out in front and can run a bold race at each-way odds.
Will have to stave off the finishing burst of Entriviere, but she might get the cheap sectionals out in front to do so.
She is the each-way bet in the race if you are that way inclined.
Odds: $9 the win and $3 the place
Finishing position: Second
#8 Rocha clock
John O'shea
He lacks the early speed to put himself in the race and will be chasing from a long way out.
Happy to risk him given he will need luck in the run.
Odds: $15 the win and $4.8 the place.
Finishing position: Ninth
#9 Madam Legend
les bridge
This is a step up in class from last start and he is a horse that needs to lead on his own terms as he did when winning at Kembla Grange.
Will have to take on Vangelic in the speed battle up front and there is no way he has the early speed to go toe to toe with the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott mare.
Odds: $21 the win and $6 the place
Finishing position: Last
#10 Icebath
brad widdup
Brad Widdup will be reefing his hair out over the barrier.
She has the sprint and finishing power to win this race, but it is matter of how far back she gets in the run.
If Kerrin McEvoy can somehow tag the back of the favourite and be close enough at the top of the straight she can win.
Her price is nothing to be enamoured about though.
Odds: $5 the win and $2 the place
Finishing position: Fourth
#11 tricky gal
matthew smith
Must make the rise in the rise class here, but her first-up run was simply enormous.
She conceded a start of about 10 lengths approaching the home straight and launched home down the outside to almost nab victory.
It was a cracking effort and she will be idling up from the inside barrier with the only query on her being luck in the run.
She will need the gaps to open at the top of the straight but she is a genuine top five chance.
Odds: $10 the win and $3.3 the place
Finishing position: Fifth
#12 Startantes
Robert Heathcote
This three-year-old filly will not be last, wide and having to make up eight to 10 lengths on the leaders as she did in the Flight Stakes (1600m) when running third behind Never Been Kissed.
It was an enormous run considering the circumstances after she launched home up the middle of the Randwick straight and actually loomed up to win.
Robbie Dolan can ascertain a spot just better than midfield from barrier seven.
A top three chance.
Odds: $9 the win and $3 the place
Finishing position: Third
