The BetDeluxe team goes through the runner-by-runner preview of the $5,000,000 Caulfield Cup.
Will the wide barrier be a disaster or delight for winning machine Incentivise?
#1 Homesman
Anthony & Sam Freedman
This stable and the Williams family connections must always be respected in the big Cup staying races during the Spring Carnival.
That being said, his long price is warranted.
Odds: $41 the win and $8 the place
Finishing position: Eleventh
#2 incentivise
Peter Moody
The Group 1 superstar of the Spring Racing Carnival thus far.
Continues to pile on win after win and fought on doggedly to win the Turnbull Stakes a fortnight ago.
Has drawn the car park in barrier 20, but it might just work out perfectly for him.
With predicted downpour in Melbourne, expect the inside section of the track to be off by the time we reach the Caulfield Cup.
Brett Prebble will know exactly where the best ground is and ride accordingly.
Both jockey and horse are in incredible form and the ones to beat.
Odds: $2.4 the win
Finishing position: First
#3 Explosive Jack
Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace
An out and out stayer who is ready to run a peak this preparation.
Barrier one is not ideal for him as he is going to be stuck on the fence and relying on the seas parting for a run to appear.
He will be running on late in the race.
Odds: $14 the win and $4.2 the place
Finishing position: Sixth
#4 The Chosen One
Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
A staying marvel who loves racing in Australia.
Ran a cracker in this race last year to finish third behind Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyk.
His effort in the Herbert Power behind Delphi was strong, however the wet track might just hurt his winning chances.
Might be worth an each-way ticket.
Odds: $11 the win and $3.5 the place.
Finishing position: Third
#5 Ocean Billy
chris waller
No chance at winning a Caulfield Cup first-up in Australia with current form.
Odds: $91 the win and $20 the place
Finishing position: Last
#6 Selino
Chris Waller
He is a Group 1 handicap winner over 3200 metres.
Great run behind Grand Promenade last start in lower grade, but he looks a tad outclassed here.
Might be in the better ground late in the race from the wide barrier.
Odds: $81 the win and $17 the place
Finishing position: Fourteenth
#7 Persan
Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace
Is in no where the form he showed in the 2020 spring carnival.
Ran five lengths behind Incentivise in the Turnbull Stakes last start and can get a bit closer this time with the wet conditions likely to suit him.
Regardless, he isn’t going well enough to win.
Odds: $31 the win and $6.5 the place.
Finishing position: Thirteenth
#8 Quick Thinker
Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman
Had a torrid time of it in The Metropolitan (2400m) when being caught wide on a hot speed.
The wetter the better for him.
Declan Bates is not riding in the greatest form, so it is hard to tip him with any confidence.
Odds: $61 the win and $13 the place.
Finishing position: Fifteenth
#9 Chapada
Mike Moroney
Continues to run well without winning.
Loomed up in the Turnbull Stakes and then his fitness just gave way late in the race.
Definitely going to finish in the top half of the field based on his progression this campaign.
Odds: $61 the win and $12 the place
Finishing position: Seventh
#10 Delphi
Anthony & Sam Freedman
Booked his ticket into the Caulfield Cup with a win in the Herbert Power last Saturday.
Damien Oliver is going to shed weight in order to get the ride on this gelding and that could be a tip in itself.
The run over 2400 metres will have him rock-hard fit for this race.
Slightly under the odds, but a top four chance nonetheless.
Odds: $6.5 the win and $2.4 the place.
Finishing position: Fourth
#11 Master of wine
M, W & J Hawkes
Put in his best performance of his current spring carnival last start when finishing third in The Bart Cummings (2500m) at Flemington.
Started well in the market in the 2020 Caulfield Cup, so has to be respected.
A potential top 10 position on the cards if he runs up to or improves on his run two weeks ago.
Odds: $31 the win and $8.5 the place
Finishing position: Eleventh
#12 Montefilia
david Payne
Has only ever had one run the Melbourne way of going and that was when she was defeated as an odds-on pop in last year’s edition of the VRC Oaks.
Doubt she will be as good as she was when winning The Metropolitan by a nose a fortnight ago.
The tempo and class of a Metropolitan compared to the Caulfield Cup is usually panels apart.
Odds: $16 the win and $4.2 the place.
Finishing position: Twelfth
#13 Port Guillaume
Ben & J D hayes
Was horrible in The Bart Cummings last start after tailing out to finish last and be beaten by over 13 lengths.
Needs divine intervention to finish anywhere near the placings.
Odds: $71 the win and $17 the place
Finishing position: Seventeenth
#14 She's Ideel
Bjorn Baker
Comes out of The Metropolitan after settling almost last in the run and having to make a massive sustained run to get anywhere the top half of the field.
It was a massive effort considering the circumstances and she is going to be graced with a much softer run this around.
Price differential between her and Montefilia is ridiculous.
Handles the soft and heavy going with ease and can run a huge race at odds.
The each-way play in the race if you’re looking at something outside of the favourite.
Odds: $31 the win and $6.5 the win
Finishing position: Second
#15 Young Werther
Danny O'brien
Has only ever won one race in his whole career and that was his first ever start.
He is, however, still a genuine Group 1 performer and stamped himself as a threat to Incentivise when running up to beat him last start and just petering out the last 50 metres.
Does not get any weight relief off the favourite despite coming back to handicap level from weight-for-age racing, so that is a slight knock.
Would be surprised to see him finish outside the top five based on his last start effort.
Odds: $10 the win and $3.3 the place
Finishing position: Fifth
#16 Nonconformist
Grahame Begg
He is in a rich vein of form after his Naturalism Stakes win was followed up by a cracking effort in the Caulfield Stakes when being nosed out by Probabeel.
He is flying at the moment but has never faced heavy ground, which we are expecting on Saturday.
Has to be a risk with all his great form being on top of the ground.
Odds: $11 the win and $3.5 the place
Finishing position: Ninth
#17 Duais
Edward Cummings
Won a sit-and-sprint edition of the Coongy Cup when out-bobbing Wentworth in a photo finish.
That race does not rate very highly and soft to heavy track is a not exactly a tick either.
Looks a weak link in the market.
Odds: $16 the win and $4.8 the place.
Finishing position: Tenth
#18 Charm's Star
chris waller
This is too difficult.
Would be one of the biggest ever Caulfield Cup upsets if she was to run a place let alone win.
Odds: $61 the win and $12 the place.
Finishing position: Sixteenth
