The Wizard of Odds finds the best bets and value ahead of Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington.
With forecast rain predicted for Melbourne, The Wizard is steering us towards race-fit horses who can handle give in the ground.
flemington race 1
#7 Robusto
It was hard not to get excited by the jump outs of Robusto.
The two-year-old colt looks a genuine group horse by what he has shown in his practice runs up the Flemington straight.
The experience up the straight is so critical for these juveniles who can get lost without the guidance of the running rail.
This Chris Waller-trained horse is beautifully bred as well with his dam being a group-three winner.
Brett Prebble, who is riding in a rich vein of form, takes the ride and will give this colt very possible chance from a middle draw that will ensure he has cover and a cart into the race to use what looks like an explosive sprint.
Suggested Bet: Robusto win at $3.7
Suggested Exotic: Boxed First Four – 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
flemington race 2
#8 gunstock
It was an absolutely fantastic maiden win by Gunstock over 1600 metres at Cranbourne last start.
The three-year-old by Tavistock was forced to sit three-wide midfield with no cover and was then asked to make sustained from the 700-metre mark.
It looked like he might have been running on empty at the 150-metre mark, but he kicked an found again to win running away from his rivals.
The scary thing for his challengers here is that he is only going to improve, and he is going to perfect trailing run from barrier five.
If his breeding is anything to go by, the step up to 1800 metres and beyond will see him thrive even more.
Looks a real Derby prospect and should be winning this race on what he produced at Cranborne.
Suggested Bet: Gunstock win at $3.5
flemington race 7
#4 Verry Elleegant & #8 Colette
Going with a two-horse play in this race with Colette as the winning bet and then saving on Verry Elleegant.
Colette can win this race based purely on the forecast rain that is set to Melbourne which will likely render the track to the soft or heavy range.
She thrives on wet conditions with all bar one of her six wins coming on soft or heavy ground.
A similar case can be made for defending 2020 Turnbull Stakes champion Verry Elleegant who loves the wet tracks and is racing in brilliant form after notching up her ninth group one victory last start.
Suggested Bet:
Verry Elleegant win at $2.45
Colette each-way at $8 the win and $1.85 the place
flemington race 8
#10 sheraz
A huge runner of interest this weekend is the French import for the Chris Waller stable in the form of Sheraz.
He took the honours in a 3000-metre listed event at Chantilly on June 25 and looks to clearly handle the soft ground which we are likely to get come race day.
Fitness will probably not be of any concern with a good residual base to utilise in what will be a tough staying race.
Notably, champion jockey Damien Oliver has been booked to ride this Waller recruit and that in itself is a massive guide.
Should this gelding be victorious in this race, he will be granted a free pass into the Melbourne Cup.
Suggested Bet: Sheraz each-way at $6 the win and $2.25 the place
