The Wizard of Odds takes his best bets to Mornington racecourse ahead of Thursday racing.
There are a couple of maidens who looks ready to breakthrough and a good each-way bet late in the card.
Mornington Race 2
#12 Tiz My Bay
Tiz My Bay brings in a highly rated maiden form line from Sale after running fourth behind winner Invincible Caviar and runner-up Xtra Gear who has come out and won since.
The race was run over 1113 metres with this three-year-old filly hitting the line nicely in the last 250 metres.
She now rises to 1500 metres which is a sharp rise in distance, but she looks a type of horse who will appreciate getting out over further.
These are the most dour horses she will face in her career to date and that means she can settle much closer to the lead or, if Jye Mcneil opts to do so, set the pace out in front.
The Robbie Griffiths & Mathew De Kock stable has shown sharp improvement with its runners in the last fortnight and we might getting ahead of the trend before the market cottons on.
Suggested Bet: Tiz My Bay win at $3.8
Suggested Exotic: Trifecta – 1, 12/ 1, 6, 12/ 1, 6, 11, 12
Mornington Race 4
#1 Raven's Blaze
Raven’s Blaze comes up in a much easier race than what she has faced in her last five starts.
The seven-year-old mare returns to the track where she has had the most success in her career with eight starts at Mornington giving her four wins.
Since her last run in BM-70 level at Sandown she has had a Cranbourne trial over 800 metres.
It was a nice piece of work to run second behind Whipcracker Way and she looked to travel much more comfortably in the run with a big gap to third.
Barrier One represents a slightly tricky task for young apprentice Kiran Quilty who rode her in the trial, but the instructions to her will be to hunt up and use her four-kilo claim to full effect by riding near the lead.
Predicting a return to winning ways for this mare.
Suggested Bet: Raven’s Blaze win at $3
Mornington Race 5
#2 Rapid Achiever
Rapid Achiever is slowly but surely living up to her namesake as she progresses through her grades nicely.
The four-year-old mare has had two career starts for two wins and continues to step up every time she takes to the track.
Her last start in BM-64 grade when running over the mile at Sandown was a dogged on-paced victory where fought off her rivals to win by half-a-length on the line.
The Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace training duo will have likely left a heap of fitness up her sleeve in order to contend with the rise in distance to 2000 metres and beyond.
Barrier eight at the tight-turning Mornington track could cause issues for her, but senior hoop John Allen should be able to overcome any concerns by utilising this galloper’s front-running style in order to thwart the threat of being posted wide.
She is a lightly raced mare against a field with a heap of runners who have likely hit their ceiling.
Suggested Bet: Rapid Achiever win at $3.2
Suggested Exotic: Quinella 2 & 3
Mornington Race 9
#9 Shielded
Vehemently against the seven-length maiden winner Ojosan and will side firmly with Shielded who looks a lovely each-way chance in the last on the program.
The five-year-old gelding’s only career win came at this course and distance before he got sent for a spell.
However, the big factor that caught the eye was the booking of gun jockey Damian Lane which clearly highlights this horse is ready to fire first-up from a break.
The only knock here is the year off between his last start and this race, but the way he trialled and jumped out suggests he has come back in good order and will be forward enough from a fitness perspective.
He draws a soft barrier, so Lane will not have to do too much work on him to get him into comfortable spot in the run.
Suggested Bet: Shielded each-way at $9 the win and $2.9 the place.
