The Wizard of Odds delves into the Group 1 William Reid (1200m) at Moonee Valley as well as the Caulfield Cup ballot exempt Mornington Cup and the preceding races on the the nine-race program from Mornington.
Plenty of value to be found this weekend!
Moonee valley race 7 - William Reid Stakes
#8 Libertini
Libertini goes like a rocket when racing fresh as we saw last preparation.
Her first-up run in the Spring of 2020 saw her produce a devastating turn of foot to defeat eventual Everest winner Classique Legend and multiple Group 1 winning sprinter Nature Strip.
She has had a nice trial at Canterbury over 905 metres where she was not asked to do much in preparation for this race.
Drawing out deep on the track is not a exactly a recipe for success at Moonee Valley, but with the speed engaged in this high-pressure sprint, her jockey Tommy Berry is a master of timing his runs on horses dashing home from the rear of the field.
This looks like the perfect race for her to kickstart her autumn campaign.
Suggested Bet: Libertini win at $4.8
Suggested Exotic: Boxed Trifecta – 1, 2, 8
Mornington Race 2 - Asset Painting Services Handicap
#3 Scarlet Dream
Tipped Scarlet Dream each-way at Flemington last start and she ran well to finish third behind Sovereign Award, who got away with murder in the lead.
With that run under her belt plus the step up to 2000 metres, we should see her run somewhere near her best here and that will be good enough to beat this lot.
Apprentice Will Price claims two kilos off her back and she draws a beautiful barrier.
Price should be able to position her one back and one off the fence and make his run whenever he choses to.
It’s D-Day for her and she gets chance to get back into winning form.
Suggested Bet: Scarlet Dream win at $3.8
Suggested Exotic: Quinella 3 & 4
Mornington Race 6 - Mornington Guineas
#2 Dom To Shoot
A huge drop down in class for Dom To Shoot might just be enough to get that illustrious win in Victoria on the board.
He has raced in the Group 3 CS Hayes (1400m) and the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) at Flemington with his only failure being in the Guineas where he finished five lengths off the winner Lunar Fox.
He only gets 58kgs in this race and is only three kgs off the minimum after a Group 1 run.
The blinkers come off and the winkers are applied which might just help him settle that little bit more on the run and allow him to conserve his energy for late.
William Pike stays with him and the pair should be able to settle much closer to the speed than last start.
Just needs the gaps to open up in the straight and if that occurs he will be winning this!
Suggested Bet: Dom To Shoot win at $3.3
Suggested exotic: Trifecta – 2, 4/ 1, 2, 4/ 1, 2, 3, 4
Mornington Race 7 - Mornington CUp
#4 Irish Flame
There is a sentimental spot in our hearts for two reasons with this horse;
The first is that he got the job done for us at $21 last spring in the Ballarat Cup and the second is the harrowing news about his trainer Brett Scott suffering from a shocking training that has left him hospitalised.
The horse, much like his trainer has shown in the past week, has big heart and is a genuine fighter.
Loved his run behind the Group 1-performed Persan at Moonee Valley last week and he now he comes to his home track on the quick back-up which should suit him perfectly.
He has never had a crack at the 2400 metre range but his racing style and pattern should see him run this out strongly.
Jockey Michael Walker will position him on the pace and he may even potentially lead.
Just hoping he can hold on from the fast finishing Mount Popa!
Good each-way bet.
Suggested Bet: Irish Flame each-way at $6.5 win and $2.4 the place
Suggested Exotic: Quinella 4 & 7
