The women’s Semifinals and the first of the men’s Semifinals headline the action from Rod Laver Arena today.
The favourites in all three matches today looks considerably difficult to beat but regardless we have found some great value with our best bets today.
#3 n.osaka v #10. s.williams
rod laver arena 2:00pm
This match could be ordained the ‘passing of the baton’ when 23-year-old Japanese starlet Naomi Osaka takes on the might and power of 23-time grand slam champion Serena Williams.
Osaka, a three-time grand slam winner herself, was in sparking form in her quarter final success over Taiwanese veteran Hsieh Su-wei.
The world number three took an hour and six minutes to send Su-wei packing with a 6-2, 6-2 win to book her spot in today’s semi final.
Williams, meanwhile, looked everso sprightly in her 6-3, 6-3 straight sets win over world number two Simona Halep.
It’s a dead heat in the head to head battle between both Osaka and Williams with the pair splitting the wins in their four encounters to date.
It was Williams who claimed victory in their most recent outing after a grinding 6-2, 2-6, 10-7 exhibition match win in Adelaide just prior to the 2021 Australian Open.
The first and only time the pair met at a grand slam was the US Open final of 2018 and it was Osaka who lifted the crown that night with a stunning 6-2, 6-4 victory.
Both players have only dropped one set on their way to the semi-finals and the numbers here are suggesting a tight match.
Osaka and Williams possess arguably the best serve in women’s tennis.
With eerily similar first-serve points conversions (79%), it is Williams who has the more powerful first serve with a booming top speed of 202km/h but Osaka has a slightly higher average first-serve speed going at 175.9 km/h.
Osaka has also hit a tournament high 38 aces with Williams ranked second on 32.
In the rallies, Osaka is averaging more winners and less errors than Williams throughout the tournament and has allowed her opponents far less breakpoint opportunities compared to Williams.
This match is poised to be an epic three set contest but it is Osaka we will be siding with today as she ventures towards a second Australian Open title.
Suggested Bet: Naomi Osaka to win 2 sets to 1 at $3.60
#25 K.MUCHOVA V #22 J.BRADY
ROD LAVER ARENA 3:15PM
Karolina Muchova made headlines for all the wrong reasons after booking a spot in the Semifinal against Jennifer Brady with an upset victory over world number one Ash Barty steeped in controversy.
Muchova took a medical timeout in the come from behind 1-6, 6-3, 6-3 win over the Australian but it was the timing and reasoning of it that marred what was otherwise an impressive win.
In contrast, Brady has quietly sliced her way through the women’s draw and had not dropped a set until her quarterfinal victory over fellow American and close friend Jessica Pegula.
A 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 win over Pegula was enough to set up this clash with Muchova and there is no doubt the American will have the backing of the Australian Open crowd today.
Brady has been in career best form throughout the tournament so far.
The 25-year-old world number 24 has landed 81 percent of returns and saved 16 of 22 break points highlighting her ability to handle high pressure situations.
Comparatively, Muchova has been broken on serve 15 times this tournament and that is a vulnerability Brady will attempt to hone in on with her superior first serve.
Brady has the edge on Muchova when comparing first serves, with the American sitting third in the ace rankings with 24 of her own, while Muchova sits in 12th spot with only 16.
From a groundstroke perspective, Brady also has the upper hand hitting 36 less unforced errors than Muchova throughout their five matches in the tournament.
Muchova does have the advantage of having already beaten Brady in their only ever encounter but that was on clay back in 2019.
It’s a different ballgame on the hardcourt and all the signs point towards Brady deserving her tag as the favourite in this one.
Suggested bet: Jennifer Brady head to head at $1.50
#1 n.djokovic v a.karatsev
rod laver arena 7:30PM
Novak Djokovic attempts to inch one step closer to an unprecedented ninth Australian Open title when he plays Russian underdog Aslan Karatsev for a spot in the men’s final.
Djokovic has been far from the dominant force that has ripped shreds through the Australian Open for the past decade with rumors swirling of an injury he has been forced to carry through the tournament.
The world number one had only managed one straight sets victory so far which came in his Round 1 match against Frenchman Jeremy Chardy.
It has since been a grind for Djokovic. He needed four sets to defeat Frances Tiafore, five sets to knock off Taylor Fritz, four sets to defeat Milos Raonic but it was his most recent four set victory over Alex Zverez that he would be most pleased about.
Zverev posed the biggest threat to Djokovic but it was the Serbian champion who prevailed in four sets with a 6-7, 6-2, 6-4, 7-6 victory to book his spot in this semi-final against Karatsev.
A rank outsider to begin the tournament, Karatsev’s rise to grand slam fame would be sealed with an upset win against Djokovic.
Ranked 114th in the world and well over 100-to-1 to win the tournament leading in, Karatsev has defied all odds and continued his best ever grand slam run with a four set 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 boilover against Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals.
In doing so, he has now knocked off three players inside the top 20: Dimitrov, Diego Schwartzman, Felix Auger-Aliassime.
Djokovic and Karatsev have never met in a competitive match but it might just favour the 27-year-old Russian who will look to take advantage of an uncharastically error-riddled Djokovic.
The 17-time grand slam winner hit 56 errors in his quarterfinal win against Zverev and will need to clean that part of his game up with Karatsev boasting a powerful game from the baseline.
Karatsev seems unfazed by his time on the big stage and that will bode well for him but Djokovic knows how to get it done time and again.
Predicting this will be another stern test for Djokovic but his class should shine through and guide him to yet another Australian Open final.
Suggested Bet:
Novak Djokovic to win 3 sets to 1 at $3.40
Novak Djokovic to win 3 sets to 2 at $7
